Jacksonville – A Buyers Market?

Jacksonville, FL – It’s the middle of April, nearly summer and brutally hot. The spring homebuying season is in full swing, and during a typical year the phones at Wholesale Realty would be buzzing with agents putting in offers for listings. This year – it’s eerily quiet. That’s not to say there’s no activity; homes are still selling, but there’s no frenzy, and little motivation from buyers. 

“We had someone interested, but they went with another option in the same neighborhood. I’ve got another showing this weekend, but it’s been quiet.” Says Bard Rockenbach, a sales agent for Wholesale Realty who also works on the acquisition team at Duval Home Buyers, speaking about a listing he has in south Jacksonville. 

The listing itself is gorgeous, a newer built home full of high end upgrades like quartz counters and energy efficient appliances. Two years ago there would be multiple competing offers. Today, even with staging, professional photos, open houses, a highly experienced agent, and more, it’s an uphill battle. Eventually, after months on the market, an offer comes through, contingent upon the sale of the buyer’s current home. Something unlikely to even be considered in Jacksonville’s market over the past few years. This time the offer is accepted. Eventually everything closes, and the buyer and seller both walk away happy, but the process takes more than 4 months from start to finish. 

Not everyone has that kind of time, and even that sale came with risks. If the buyer’s home failed to sell, they’d back out of the purchase. And the seller would be out that time, the mortgage costs, insurance, utilities, and still have a house they need to sell. It’s the sad reality many homeowners in the Jacksonville area are facing this year if they decide or need to sell. 

Over the last few weeks there’s been a slough of articles with headlines like “Jacksonville among top cities with most home sale cancellations, according to report; 5 Florida cities in Top 10” or “Study says home sellers are sitting on nearly $700B worth of listings. Jacksonville ranks 5th as a buyer’s market.” And then there’s the recent UNF poll of Jacksonville residents that showed overwhelmingly that housing costs are the biggest concern for our city. 

The companies I work for buy and sell houses in and around Northeast Florida. We’re on the frontlines of the real estate market every day, seeing things play out in real time and at the ground level. I wish I could say that things look different. But the truth is, if you are selling a home right now, it’s a little bleak. For today, let’s focus on these two headlines, breaking down the problems and challenges they are outlining.  

Jacksonville among top cities with home sale cancellations

This headline has special meaning to me as someone who has worked in the field of real estate for as many years as I have. Contract cancellations are devastating, but they are nothing new. I’ve written numerous times about all the ways and all of the reasons that a contract can fall out. Duval Home Buyers’ business model is built around offering certainty in part because so many contracts fall out. But right now, it’s happening a lot.  

According to the National Real Estate Company Redfin Jacksonville saw a 17.8% contract cancellation rate in April of 2025. That’s almost 1 in 5 contracts that end up going nowhere. Only Atlanta GA, Orlando FL, Tampa FL, Riverside CA , and Miami FL have Jacksonville outpaced. 

Why the sudden uptick? The original article by local news station News4Jax is certainly correct that cold feet on the part of buyers is one reason. But that’s more a symptom than the cause itself. While it’s not the only cause of buyers getting cold feet, one reason is the fear that they are going to overpay. Prices are at record highs, but sales are at record lows. Economists would tell us that leaves only one likely outcome. Prices have got to fall. And nobody wants to be underwater on their purchase when that happens. The result? A cancellation after some sleepless nights. And it’s not an overreaction. Though we aren’t seeing prices plummet by any means. It’s certainly a legitimate fear, and something that buyers and sellers alike should be considerate of in the months to come. 

Another reason? Rising mortgage and insurance rates. There’s definitely a sticker shock when you see your true monthly payment once everything’s been factored in, and oftentimes, you don’t have an exact figure until a few weeks before you close. Uncertainty around tariffs and conflicts across the globe have kept rates high, and they’ve even climbed in recent weeks, pricing some buyers out of the deals they’ve got contracted if they’ve yet to lock in their rate. 

700B worth of listings

It’s a big number with a lot of zeros. And it’s a problem. This last year there’s been a ton of positive sentiment around home price growth and equity building for homeowners, but not as much conversation about the return to illiquidity. In 2021, you could turn a house into money fairly quickly. In 2025, it can take months if it happens at all. 

That 700B in listings? It amounts to almost 12,000 homes on the market on the NEFMLS which serves the Jacksonville area. Estimates are that there are fewer than 7,000 active buyers in our market, which leaves a massive disparity in supply and demand. 

So what does that mean in real life for real sellers? A lot of competition for the same buyer. What we’re seeing is that homes either need to be priced extremely aggressively, or need to be the absolutely best offering in the neighborhood to really stand out. These are homes with unique features, premium upgrades, new repairs or remodels and few if any possible problems. Gone are the days where the average buyer is willing to risk the 15 year old roof or the 10 year old AC unit. 

Again, the concern is that this disparity means that sellers who are facing this competition will opt for the obvious answer. Lowering their listing price. And we’re already seeing this occur. Over 25% of Florida homes on the market in May have had price reductions. It’s a bit of a slippery slope, because brokers, agents, and appraisers all use recent sales as the main comparison and basis point for future sale pricing. Plus, people themselves are reactionary. If prices all around you start to slide, you don’t want to be the only one not running for the hills. The obvious choice again becomes: cut prices to keep up – or better yet, undercut the competition. And that’s how markets crash. 

Taking a step back

Ok so, like I said, things are a bit bleak. And there are some ingredients for a market crash, but I don’t think it’s happening yet or will happen anytime soon. It’s easy to think back to 2008 and see some of the same symptoms, but this time around the underlying causes are different. Lenders haven’t been playing anywhere near as fast and loose, and nobody is in a hurry to give up hard earned wealth and equity out of panic. There are, and will continue to be buyers, and we’re seeing higher dollar homes faring better than starter homes as those earners are slightly more resilient to economic pressures. People will always need to move. Life will always happen. 

I would encourage sellers not to set their expectations too high. You should expect price reductions, and expect to give concessions. If you do decide to list, settle in for a wait – unless you get lucky, it may take a while. 

Erik Jacobson is the Marketing Director for Duval Home Buyers, LLC and has been involved in the Jacksonville real estate market since 2017. The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Duval Home Buyers, LLC or Wholesale Realty. This article is for entertainment only, and should not be used as real estate or legal advice. It’s always best to consult with a licensed professional prior to making any real estate decision. Agents of Duval Home Buyers LLC are licensed with Wholesale Realty in the State of Florida.