Existing Home Sales Spike – But not in Jacksonville

It’s good news for American homeowners! Existing home sales rose 1.6 percent month over month, and 1.7 percent year over year in October 2024 according to data provided by the real estate brokerage Redfin. This increase represents the biggest gain since January 2022, and hints that lower rates and easing inflation pressures may finally be having the desired effect on prospective buyers. 

But here’s the rub…Jacksonville just isn’t seeing the gains. In fact, according to data provided by the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors ®, ️home sales have actually fallen by 6.3 percent in Jacksonville year over year and 3.2% month over month. Now it’s worth noting that these figures only represent the initial sales figures for October 2024. The final results may be more favorable, but the trend is still deeply troubling for local owners. 

Why aren’t Jacksonville homes selling?

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, most of the reasons why Jacksonville’s homes aren’t selling can be traced back to simple dollars and cents. At the start of the Covid 19 pandemic, Jacksonville was a relatively untapped and up and coming market, offering homes within a major metro and driving distance to the beach at a fraction of the cost of most other major Florida cities. 

As an example, the median sale price of a listed home in Northeast Florida, which includes the Jacksonville Metro was $235,000 in October 2019 according to the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors®️. By contrast, the median sales price in Miami Dade county was $380,000 in that same period. 

These days the median sales price in Northeast Florida is $350,990, representing a 49 percent  increase for the period. This when wages across the united states have risen about 23 percent since 2019, and inflation on common household goods is about 20 percent. There’s a pretty obvious gulf, enormous even. 

But it’s not just home prices. Property Taxes have also surged in Jacksonville, rising an estimated 59.6 percent since 2019. The 3rd highest increase across all US metros for that timeframe. Combined with increased costs of materials and labor for things like repairs, the burden of owning a home has grown significantly as well, and even those who are able to make the initial purchase may be second guessing the carrying costs. 

The perfect storm

Another cause of buyer hesitation is…the weather. The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been pretty unkind to the state. Current FEMA estimates put the damages for hurricanes from this year at between 50 and 85 billion (that’s billion with a B) for just Florida alone. 

Historically a popular destination for Northern and Western migrants, especially during the Zoom Boom that came with remote work during the Pandemic, the reality of Florida’s hurricane trouble has started to hit home. This recent news cycle was flooded with stories of recent migrants experiencing their first storm season, only to lose it all and be sent packing back to whence they came. 

Then there’s insurance. The costs of these storms aren’t just felt by homeowners, federal, and state agencies. Florida is currently in the midst of an insurance crisis, as many home insurers have begun to cancel policies and withdraw from the state, citing the high rate of storm related claims and major damage as a primary reason. 

Home buyers and sellers are being forced to jump through excessive hoops, replacing roofs that would have previously qualified, cutting down and trimming limbs, and paying exorbitant premiums along many of the coastal areas. The resulting expenses are placing additional strain on an already struggling market. 

Hope on the horizon

Despite the setbacks, there’s a reason we’re still aggressively buying in Jacksonville. The city has a ton going for it, and even with the staggering increase in home prices, it’s still a relatively affordable city by comparison to its neighbors like Tampa, Orlando, and Miami. 

One of the biggest benefits is job growth and retention. When wages in a city are high, the inhabitants can afford to pay more for their housing. And Jacksonville is a city ripe with opportunity for high paying work. Earlier this year Jacksonville was ranked the #2 hottest job market by the Wall Street Journal, and Jacksonville was the #1 destination for corporate moves from 2022-2023 according to the SEC. 

Then there’s the city itself. Jacksonville isn’t known for its downtown. But that’s changing. This year the city approved a major 2+ billion dollar initiative to renovate and replace the existing stadium space for the Jacksonville Jaguars NFL franchise. This new space is expected to bring increased tourism to the Jacksonville area, and the economic impact is estimated to be over 25 billion during the period of the 30 year lease the Jaguars have signed as part of the agreement. 

The result should be a city with relatively affordable housing, a bustling downtown, beach access, and a healthy and resilient job market, all of the ingredients for long term growth. 

What should sellers expect?

Seller’s who have a need to sell in the next few months should prepare themselves for a challenge. The average number of days a home sits on the market has risen to 71. Up from 61 the same time last year. And the competition is stiff. The number of listings has remained fairly constant in the mid 10 thousands since July. 

Price cuts are also becoming the norm. It’s estimated that as many as 33 percent of homes listing on the market in Jacksonville have experienced a price cut this year. Gone are the days of dozens of offers and a high stakes bidding war. Now it’s a waiting game where dialing in the perfect asking price is a requirement, rather than a bonus. 

Lastly, winter is historically a slow season for home sales. Most people simply don’t want to move during the Holidays when travel, and time with family are the primary concerns. Yards die and don’t look as good. Leaves fall from trees creating clutter, and the beaches aren’t quite as appealing as a selling feature. 

If you do need to sell, make sure to spend the money on professional photos, upgrades, and repairs. Or be ready to cut prices. When there’s high competition, homes that stand out, or offer a steal of a value are far more likely to attract a buyer. 

Lastly, get creative. Arm yourself with as much information about your home’s value as possible. Explore options like porting a low mortgage rate to a buyer, or talk to local investors about cash offers. Lenders can also offer some incentives like point buydowns which help for the first few years of ownership. Ultimately, the choice to sell should be a well thought out and researched one. Be sure to talk to a professional about how to make sure your sale meets your needs.